The top-level meeting shows China
Jack Sullivan, who came to China for the first time as the national security adviser of the United States, has been warmly welcomed. He will speak with Foreign Minister Wang Yi as the two countries try to normalize relations.
Mr Sullivan and Mr Wang met four times in 16 months, in Vienna, Malta, Washington and Bangkok. They last met in January, just after President Xi Jinping and Joe Biden held a high-stakes summit to try to repair strained relations.
This week’s meetings, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, signal that China remains a priority for the Biden administration, even as the retiring president enters his final months in office.
Both Mr. Sullivan and Mr. Wang acknowledged the need to establish common ground after the dispute between their countries.
Could another presidential summit be in the cards?
The White House is trying to avoid directly linking Mr. Sullivan’s trip to the US presidential election. But time is hard to ignore.
If Mr. Sullivan succeeds in laying the groundwork for an eventual Biden-Xi summit, his visit will cap the US president’s most important — and difficult — foreign policy relationship.
Beijing’s approach: a ‘critical juncture’
US and Chinese diplomats agree that negotiations between Washington and Beijing are never easy. There’s a lot to talk about.
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With Biden’s surprise withdrawal in favor of Kamala Harris in the US election, China is keeping a close eye on what the next president will bring.
Donald Trump has made it clear he wants to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, possibly intensifying the trade war he started in 2019.
While Mr. Biden’s administration has acknowledged the need for diplomacy, he has not repealed Trump-era tariffs and instead imposed new ones; In May, he imposed steep taxes on Chinese-made electric cars, solar panels and steel.
Mr. Biden has strengthened ties in Asia to counter China’s growing influence, while increasing Washington’s military footprint, which has alarmed Beijing.
So far, Harris has not provided many details about how the team intends to manage its relationship with China.
And the White House has made clear that Mr. Sullivan’s visit is intended to continue the work of the Biden administration rather than set the tone for a future president.
But China is probably looking ahead.
Beijing will use the meeting with Mr Sullivan to clarify its own priorities. It would be hoped that all parties in America are listening; China’s foreign ministry called it an “important juncture” between the world’s two largest economies.
Taiwan has always been and will always be China’s red line. It claims the island is self-governing and has often said it will not allow any sign of US support for Taiwan independence.
This category includes high-profile diplomatic visits, such as the controversial one by then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in 2022, as well as the recognition of Taiwan’s elections or elected authorities.
According to Chinese state media, Beijing will focus on expressing serious concerns, outlining its position and making serious claims on issues such as the “Taiwan Question”.
China will also have tough words for Mr Sullivan on trade. Beijing characterized the US tariffs on Chinese imports as “unreasonable” and called on Washington to “stop the politicization and protectionism of economic and trade issues” and to “take more measures to facilitate people-to-people exchanges between the two countries”.
Washington’s View: Stealth over Bravery
When he took office, Mr. Biden sought to restore normalcy to relations with China following what he saw as turmoil and unpredictability in the Trump administration.
His administration has tried to “manage responsibly” its rivalry with Beijing, demonstrating American dominance and competing by stealth rather than swinging with China.
However, the turmoil of events overturned that strategy.
Last year, a crisis gripped bilateral relations when an American fighter jet shot down a suspected Chinese spy balloon over American soil.
The war in Ukraine and the Middle East has intensified.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken visited Beijing in April and warned that Washington would intervene if China continued to supply Russia with microchips and machine parts for weapons used in its operations in Ukraine.
He accused his Chinese counterparts of “helping to fuel the biggest threat” to European security since the Cold War.
His warning was followed by several actions against Chinese companies accused of supporting the Russian military.
It is a difficult issue that China has tried to avoid, but Washington is determined, and Mr Sullivan is sure to bring it up again.
China’s growing assertiveness in Asia has made the United States wary of the consequences of such a relationship, particularly with Iran, which is allied with Moscow and arms Israel’s opponents.
Finally, in America, Chinese-made “pre-cursor” chemicals used to make synthetic opioids like fentanyl are having dire domestic effects, with overdoses killing more Americans than ever before and the problem ravaging entire cities.
Goal: ‘Stable Relationship’
The conference between Biden and Xi in San Francisco last year was intended to make progress on these issues.
Since then, despite the tariffs and tough rhetoric, Washington and Beijing have acknowledged their differences, and signs of an agreement to reduce fentanyl production are encouraging.
When maclisten joined U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken on a visit to Shanghai and Beijing in April, some of his public conversations with senior Chinese officials were something of a standoff.
It was a show of diplomatic might for each side’s domestic audience. And it will certainly be part of Mr. Sullivan’s visit as he seeks to bolster Mr. Biden’s diplomacy in the final months of his presidency.
However, these meetings serve another important purpose: face-to-face time between two hostile, interdependent economies as they battle mutual suspicions and try to ascertain each other’s true intentions.
Jack Sullivan’s earlier meetings with Wang Ye appear to have laid the framework for what the two sides quietly refer to as a “stable relationship”.
In a recent speech at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, Mr Sullivan said he and Mr Wang were “increasingly getting to the point of putting talking points aside and having a really strategic conversation”.
He described the chats as “live”, including one about the war in Ukraine.
“We both left feeling like we didn’t agree or see eye-to-eye on everything but there was a lot of work to take forward.”